Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies September 26, 2025

US stock futures dropped as Wall Street reacted to a slew of announcements from President Trump about a new wave of tariffs impacting furniture, pharmaceuticals and heavy machinery to take effect from Oct.1.

Sage Kakkat

25 Sep 2025 — 6 min read

US stock futures dropped as Wall Street reacted to a slew of announcements from President Trump about a new wave of tariffs impacting furniture, pharmaceuticals and heavy machinery to take effect from Oct.1.
Meanwhile, President Trump signed an order approving a $14 billion TikTok deal, though China still needs to sign off on the agreement. Fed governor Lisa Cook also urged the Supreme Court to reject Trump's attempt to fire her over alleged mortgage fraud, saying it would cause "chaos and disruption" in markets.
The economy's mixed signals and signs of division among Fed policymakers have amped up anticipation for the release of the August PCE report. Investors are looking for reassurance that inflation hasn't risen so fast that it could threaten the two rate cuts the Fed has projected for this year. The report is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show an easing in price pressures.
Most Asian stocks fell on Friday, with pharmaceutical stocks leading losses after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep import tariffs on the sector, while declines in technology shares also weighed.
Japanese stocks were outliers, rising marginally as a soft consumer inflation print fuelled speculation that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates soon.
Regional markets tracked overnight losses on Wall Street, which sank for a third straight session amid mounting uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and inflation. S&P 500 Futures were flat in Asian trade, with focus squarely on upcoming PCE price index data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
South Korea’s KOSPI was the worst performer in Asia, sliding 2.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.8%. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell between 0.3% and 0.5%.
Trump on Thursday evening announced a slew of trade tariffs, most notably a 100% levy on all branded and patented pharmaceutical goods. The duty will take effect from October 1.
The move heralds substantially more pressure on Asian pharma exporters, with a bulk of regional companies having heavy exposure to U.S. markets. Still, Trump said that companies building manufacturing facilities in the U.S. will be exempt from the duty.
India’s pharma sector is heavily exposed to U.S. exports, although a large portion of this is in generic drugs, which appeared to be exempt from U.S. tariffs.
Losses in technology stocks– which fell in tandem with their U.S. peers– also pressured Asian markets. Artificial intelligence-exposed stocks were the worst hit, amid growing questions over a potential bubble in the sector.
Asian chip stocks deepened their losses after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was seeking ways to greatly lessen U.S. reliance on chip imports, including a sharp increase in domestic production. But it remained unclear just how the White House will achieve this, given the heavy financial and logistical costs involved in chipmaking.
NVIDIA Corporation’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) $100 billion investment in OpenAI stoked concerns over increased circular investing in the sector, which in turn saw investors steadily lock-in recent profits in tech shares.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes rose 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively, although bigger gains were held back by losses in tech and pharma.
Tokyo consumer price index inflation data read cooler than expected for September, with underlying inflation also seen easing from recent peaks.
The print usually acts as a bellwether for nationwide inflation, and spurred bets that cooling inflation will dent the BOJ’s plans to hike interest rates further. This notion also pressured the yen, benefiting export-oriented stocks.
Japanese stock indexes remained close to recent record highs, amid growing conviction that the BOJ will leave monetary policy largely accommodative in the coming months.
Broader Asian stocks were largely muted. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.1%, while Singapore’s Straits Times index added 0.3%.
India’s Nifty 50 index fell 0.4%, extending steep losses from earlier this week with pharma stocks being the biggest weight. Indian stocks were battered by increasing uncertainty over trade talks with the U.S., after Washington slapped the country with 50% tariffs over its purchase of Russian oil.

Market Close

Equity markets finished higher on Friday as the Federal Reserve's preferred core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation measure held steady in August, in line with expectations.
Gains were broad-based, led by utility and consumer discretionary stocks, while the consumer staples sector was lower for the day.
Bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.18%, above its recent low of 4.0% earlier this month.
In international markets, Asia finished mostly lower overnight, led to the downside by pharmaceutical stocks following President Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on branded drugs. Companies can reportedly avoid tariffs by building manufacturing capacity in the U.S.
The U.S. dollar weakened against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil traded higher on Russian fuel-export cuts due to Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.9% annualized in August, matching estimates. Headline PCE inflation edged higher to 2.7% year-over-year, also in line with forecasts. Slowly-rising goods prices, up 0.9% from a year ago, have helped offset faster services inflation of 3.6%. Shelter inflation remained at a 3.9% annual pace, a key driver in elevated services inflation. With unemployment still relatively low at 4.3% and 7.2 million job openings just below the 7.4 million people who are unemployed, the labor market appears to be cooling but not collapsing.
Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, ahead of estimates pointing to 0.3% and PCE inflation of 0.26% for the month. While the labor market appears to be cooling, wage growth continues to outpace inflation, providing rising discretionary income to support consumption. Personal consumption expenditures were up 0.6% in August, also above forecasts of 0.45%.

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