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WTF Dailies September 10, 2025

Stock futures are mixed Wednesday morning ahead of today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and July’s finalized wholesale inventories data.

Sage Kakkat

10 Sep 2025 — 6 min read

Stock futures are mixed Wednesday morning ahead of today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and July’s finalized wholesale inventories data. As of 7:17 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Tuesday as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary annual benchmark revision for data through March 2025 showed total nonfarm employment being revised down by 911,000 jobs, more than expected and roughly halving job gains. The Dow was up 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.4%. The S&P 500 increased 0.3% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Communication Services sector was the top performer, rising 1.6%, while the Materials sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.6%.
On the data front, the Mortgage Banker Association’s gauge of mortgage applications increased by 9.2% for the week ending September 5 versus the prior week’s decrease of 1.2%. The headline PPI for August is expected to show price increases of 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.3% year-over-year (YOY) versus the prior month’s increases of 0.9% and 3.3%, respectively. The core PPI, which excludes volatile components like food and energy, is expected to show price increases of 0.3% MOM and 3.5% YOY versus the prior month’s increases of 0.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The finalized July reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show an increase of 0.2% MOM, similar to the prior reading, while July’s wholesale trade sales is expected to come in at 0.2% MOM versus the prior month’s increase of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have decreased by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending September 5 versus the prior week’s increase of 2.4 million barrels.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as investors look ahead to the European Central Bank’s meeting tomorrow, with policymakers widely expected to leave their policy rate unchanged amid stable inflation and easing trade risks.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were higher as China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PPI both showed deflation in August, with declines of 0.4% and 2.9% YOY, respectively. Meanwhile, South Korea’s unemployment rate ticked up to 2.6% in August.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is little changed ahead of today’s U.S. PPI data release.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.8% higher at $63.13/barrel following an expected decline in U.S. oil inventories; escalating Middle East tensions, including Israel’s strike in Qatar; and U.S. pressure on Russian oil buyers.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.3% higher at $3,665.90/ounce.

Market Close

Equity markets rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record closing highs, as producer price inflation was slower than expected in August. The technology and utility sectors led gains, while consumer discretionary and consumer staples stocks trailed.
Bond yields fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.05%.
In international markets, Asia finished higher, as major indexes for Japan, Hong Kong and Korea reached record highs, while Europe was little changed.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against major international currencies.
In commodity markets, WTI oil traded higher on heightened geopolitical risks following Isreal's attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar.
Producer price index (PPI) inflation fell to 2.6% annualized in August, well below estimates calling for an increase to 3.3%. Trade services inflation, down 1.7% month-over-month, was a key contributor to the drop, likely reflecting narrowing margins for wholesalers and retailers, in our view. Core PPI inflation, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 2.8% year-over-year, also significantly lower than forecasts for 3.5%. We believe these readings show that tariff-related price hikes remained contained through August, as firms across the supply chain likely continue to absorb higher costs. While price pressures could rise over the coming months, this cooler PPI inflation reading should feed through to consumer prices, in our view, though the timing is uncertain.
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% annualized in August, from 2.7% the prior month. Core CPI, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to hold steady at 3.1%. We expect tariffs to put some upward pressure on inflation, as higher import costs are at least partially passed along to consumers. However, most of this impact should be near-term price hikes that aren't an ongoing driver of inflation, in our view.
Bond markets are pricing in inflation of about 2.36% over the next 10 years, indicating that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. While inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target, we expect the Fed to cut rates next week, given the recent signals of a slowdown in the labor market. The Fed is likely to gradually ease interest rates from here, likely bringing the fed funds rate toward 3.5% by next year. Lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses should help support the economy and corporate profits in the months ahead.

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