Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies October 13, 2025

US stock futures advanced Sunday night as investors reacted to new remarks from President Trump that pulled punches from Friday's tariff announcements on Chinese products.

Sage Kakkat

12 Oct 2025 — 6 min read

US stock futures advanced Sunday night as investors reacted to new remarks from President Trump that pulled punches from Friday's tariff announcements on Chinese products.
The rebound follows Trump’s latest comments on Truth Social, where he reassured followers that relations with China "will all be fine.” The post, and subsequent comments to reporters, appeared to dial back his threat from Friday to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from Nov. 1. The developments had reignited fears of an escalating trade war and triggered a market drop that erased roughly $2 trillion in US equity value.
“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment,” Trump wrote. “He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it.”
In later comments to reporters, he said imposing the tariffs on Nov. 1 was still his plan but suggested the US and China would come to an agreement in the "eternity" of time between now and then.
Beyond trade headlines, Wall Street faces a busy and uncertain week ahead. The federal government shutdown continues into another week, raising the risk that many federal workers could miss their Oct. 15 paycheck if a funding deal isn’t reached.
Meanwhile, earnings season kicks off with results from major US. banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Morgan Stanley (MS) are all set to report Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts expect big things from the major lenders, expecting profits among six major banks to climb 6% from the third quarter of last year, according to Bloomberg data.-year peak.
Asian stock markets fell in a broad-based sell-off on Monday, with Hong Kong’s tech-heavy index leading declines, as fresh U.S. tariff threats and retaliation talks from Beijing reignited trade war fears and undermined investor confidence.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 2.3% on Monday, dragged down by heavy losses in major Chinese internet and technology firms.
Mainland Chinese markets also weakened, with the blue-chip Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite each down nearly 1%.
Trump on Friday announced plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all of China’s U.S.-bound exports, in response to China curbing its critical mineral exports. Trump also plans to impose new export controls on certain U.S.-made software deemed critical to national security. The news rattled global markets and sparked fears of a slowdown in regional exports. The remarks came as investors were already contending with weak Chinese data and concerns over policy tightening in major economies.
China’s Commerce Ministry responded over the weekend, saying the country “does not want a trade war but is not afraid of one,” and warned of “appropriate countermeasures” should the U.S. proceed with the planned tariff hikes.
The ministry also accused Washington of adopting “double standards” in its trade policy.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday, while other regional stocks fell amid tariff jitters.
However, futures tied to Nikkei 225 jumped nearly 1.5% on Monday as the yen weakened after Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become Japan’s prime minister faced a setback last week as her coalition partner withdrew.
South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 1.3%.
Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index declined 1%.
Futures for India’s Nifty 50 edged higher before market open.

Market Close

Equity markets finished higher on Monday following comments from President Trump via social media over the weekend that appeared to soften threats to levy additional 100% tariffs on China. Trade tensions flared up last week as China placed new export controls on rare-earth minerals, which are important inputs to certain industrial applications, including semiconductors, defense and battery technology.
Sector performance was mostly higher, with technology and consumer discretionary stocks having lead gains, while consumer staples and health care were the only sectors broadly lower. Technology-sector performance was likely aided by a new agreement between computer-chip maker Broadcom and artificial intelligence (AI) leader OpenAI to collaborate to build AI infrastructure.
In international markets, Asia finished lower overnight, likely reflecting continued investor caution over trade tensions, despite China exports rising 8.3% year-over-year in September, ahead of forecasts for 6.6% growth.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against major international currencies.
In commodity markets, WTI oil rebounded from five-month lows reached last week, likely also benefiting from cooling trade tensions.
The focus for investors will likely turn to corporate earnings this week, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup releasing third-quarter results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Earnings of S&P 500 companies are forecast to rise about 8% year-over-year. Earnings growth is expected to be broad, with seven of the 11 sectors forecast to report higher earnings per share.
Wider earnings growth should help drive more balanced market performance across sectors, strengthening the case for portfolio diversification. Estimates point to technology companies leading earnings growth, followed by the utility and materials sectors. With valuations elevated, earnings growth will likely be key to driving markets higher.
The U.S. bond market is closed today, in observance of Columbus Day, also referred to as Indigenous Peoples' Day in some states. Bond yields fell last week, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.06%. Bond markets reflect expectations for the Fed to continue its easing cycle it resumed last month to support the softening labor market. Futures markets are pricing in two more interest-rate cuts this year, followed by another two cuts or three next year, which would bring the fed funds rate down near 3.0%. The Fed's own projection suggests a slower pace of easing.

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