Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies October 09, 2025

US stock futures were little changed Wednesday night, following a record-setting trading session. Investor sentiment got a boost after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy, most agree more cuts are likely this year.

Sage Kakkat

08 Oct 2025 — 7 min read

US stock futures were little changed Wednesday night, following a record-setting trading session.
Investor sentiment got a boost after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting confirmed that while officials are divided on when and how to cut rates, most agree more cuts are likely this year. Gold ( GC=F ) also continued to climb after topping $4,000 for the first time.
No significant economic reports are scheduled for Thursday as the government shutdown drags on and delays the release economic data, but traders will be watching for earnings from Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) and PepsiCo ( PEP ).
Meanwhile, there's still no end in sight to the government shutdown, now stretching past eight days. On Wednesday afternoon, the Senate rejected for the sixth time Republican and Democratic spending bills.
Most Asian stocks rose on Thursday, buoyed chiefly by gains in technology shares as optimism over artificial intelligence drove buying into chipmaking and related stocks.
Mainland Chinese markets rallied in catch-up trade after a week-long holiday, with state media reports pointing to strong travel and spending trends during the break.
Hong Kong markets, however, lagged on steep losses in health technology stocks, following a report that U.S. tech giant Microsoft planned to enter the sector.
HSBC was also a major weight on the Hang Seng after it proposed to privatize its unit Hang Seng Bank.
Asian markets took positive cues from a strong overnight session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit record highs on a rally in tech shares.
Tech was boosted by encouraging comments from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) on AI-fueled demand, as well as anticipation of a strong third-quarter earnings season.
Dovish-leaning minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting boosted hopes for more interest rate cuts, with focus turning to an upcoming address by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.
S&P 500 Futures were flat in Asian trade. Risk appetite was also aided by Hamas and Israel agreeing to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposal, which could end their two-year war.
Japanese markets resumed their outperformance on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes adding 1.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Both indexes were headed for record-high closes at current levels.
Tech shares were a major boost to the Nikkei, with SoftBank Group Corp. (TYO:9984) rallying over 11% to a record high after it agreed to buy the robotics arm of Swiss engineering group ABB Ltd (SIX:ABBN) for about $5.4 billion.
Growing conviction that the Bank of Japan will not hike interest rates soon also aided Japanese stocks, although a pause in the yen’s losses pressured exporters.
China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, as trade resumed after the Golden Week holiday. \
Gains in tech and industrial stocks supported mainland markets, with tech– especially chipmakers– catching up with strong gains logged by their global peers in the past week.
State media reports said Chinese consumer spending remained robust during the Golden Week holiday. Passenger travel flows grew 6.2% year-on-year, while retail sales grew 3.3% y-o-y in the first four days of the holiday.
The reports sparked some optimism over a recovery in Chinese consumer spending, especially as the country grapples with persistent deflation.
Hong Kong stocks, however, were laggards, although the Hang Seng did recover from a 1% drop to trade 0.3% higher.
The Hang Seng was pressured by heavy profit-taking in healthtech and healthcare stocks, after the sector clocked a stellar run-up this year.
A Wall Street Journal report, that tech giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) planned to foray heavily into artificial intelligence-powered healthcare, also weighed on healthtech stocks.
Alibaba Health Information Technology Ltd (HK:0241) and Jd Health International (HK:6618) fell 3.6% and 4.7%, respectively, and were among the worst performers on the Hang Seng.
Sino Biopharmaceutical Ltd (HK:1177) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (HK:3692) sank 8.1% and 6.8%, respectively.
HSBC (HK:0005) was the worst performer on the Hang Seng, sliding over 6% after it proposed taking its unit– Hang Seng Bank– private in a HK$106 billion ($13.62 billion) deal.
Hang Seng Bank (HK:0011) soared as much as 40% and was the top performer in Hong Kong.
Broader Asian markets were mostly buoyed by tech, although declines in other, economically sensitive sectors reduced overall gains.
Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted surged to a fresh record high, while Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.3%.
Singapore’s Straits Times index fell 0.3%, while India’s Nifty 50 index rose 0.2%, keeping course above the coveted 25,000 point level.
South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

Market Close

Equity markets are taking a breather today after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs yesterday. The overall narrative remains unchanged, with sentiment supported by strong AI momentum and expectations for lower interest rates.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown remains unresolved, delaying the release of key economic data. In Asia, Japanese equities outperformed and reached new highs, driven by an 11% surge in SoftBank shares after the company agreed to acquire the robotics division of Swiss engineering firm ABB for $5.4 billion, further expanding its AI footprint.
The U.S. dollar is extending its strong run this week, buoyed by political uncertainty in France and the election of a new Japanese leader who favors expansionary policies.
Elsewhere silver prices jumped to new highs amid surging demand for precious metals.
After another strong quarter, stocks have extended their gains into the final stretch of the year, with the S&P 500 now up 16% including dividends. We see two key forces driving this strength: 1. Secular tailwinds from AI innovation, and 2. Cyclical momentum from lower rates. Tech’s weight in the S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high of 35%, underscoring the impact of AI. Rapid development and adoption of the technology continue to fuel market leadership, with semiconductor stocks, critical to AI infrastructure, leading gains year-to-date and over the past month, supported by accelerating investment in data centers and AI capabilities.
At the same time, the Fed’s return to easing appears to have sparked a rebound in rate-sensitive areas of the market. Cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, small- and mid-cap equities, and emerging markets are benefiting. Importantly, the Fed is cutting rates into an improving growth outlook, which we believe will help broaden market leadership. That said, investors should expect periodic pullbacks following a period of strong returns and low volatility.
With economic data temporarily unavailable due to the government shutdown, corporate earnings will likely take center stage as a key indicator of the economy’s health and consumer strength. The third-quarter earnings season kicks off next week, led by major banks.
Analysts anticipate S&P 500 profits to rise approximately 10% year-over-year—marking the fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth, following gains of 13% in the second quarter, 14% in the first quarter, and 15% in the fourth quarter of last year.
Despite emerging signs of labor-market softening, profit margins remain near record highs, suggesting potential productivity improvements.

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